|  In the world of OC Republican politics, one of the great successes has been the ability to build a Republican machine in little Saigon, based on very high levels of chased absentee ballots.
Van Tran was able to capture a Republican primary in the 68th Assembly distict in 2004 with 22,012 votes, in a district with almost 20,000 Vietnamese Republican voters. He was running against a perpetually tardy Clinton delegate turned Republican who didn't have much trust in party circles.
And of course, once Van Tran won a Republican primary, there wasn't much contest in a general election.
Still he's not a prolific vote-getter. In 2008 against an unknown Democrat spending essentially no money, he could only muster 77.5% of the combined total of Republican and Independent voters while Ken Arnold garnered 76.6% of the Democratic and Independent voters. Not much crossover for an established incumbent. |
| Looking at Loretta's district, life becomes far harder for the termed out Assemblyman. Of actual people who voted in 2008, only 15% were Vietnamese while 39.6% were Hispanic. Voters won't necessarily follow ethnic lines, but the partisan divide is even stronger. If Van Tran gets the same percentage of Republicans and Independents in this district as he did in his assembly race, he still loses by about 12 percentage points.
And there's really no reason to think that Van Tran will be able to do as well in this district, or somehow make this race competitive by mustering overwhelming resources. Loretta is a tireless campaigner and a formidable fund-raiser. She will receive unwavering support from Democrats in the Congressional delegation as well as from national unions. If this race looks like it might be close, money will flow like the Santa Ana River after a heavy rainstorm.
Recently, Congresswoman Sanchez hasn't needed to run much of a race against hapless challengers, but she can very easily crank up a precinct organization, and she is a candidate who will go out and ring doorbells herself. Loretta is despised by county Republicans, but she is very well-liked in her district, charismatic, energetic, and hard-working.
Loretta ran 8,700 votes ahead of Obama!
This race only becomes competitive if there is some dramatic change in the fortunes of the gopasaurs and the Republicans are having a wave election where they regain control of Congress.
(The numbers above are pulled from PDI's count reports and the official statement of vote, not squishy stuff like Martin Wisckol's "The area has twice as many Latinos as Vietnamese Americans, but Vietnamese Americans turn out to vote in greater numbers - so much so that the two top vote-getters in the county supervisor race there have been Vietnamese Americans in the two most recent elections."
Based on Political Data Inc's highly sophisticated count report, there were actually around 50,500 Hispanic voters vs 19,100 Vietnamese voters in the 2008 election in CA-47. Comparing a district like the 47th CD, which had 15% Vietnamese voters in 2008, with the 1st Supe, which has 22% VN voters isn't apples to apples; it more like comparing durian and avocadoes. |
